REANALYSIS
NAP-190 Normal Grazing Periods
A reproducible recalculation of county Normal Grazing Periods following FSA Notice NAP-190, using NOAA's nClimGrid daily gridded weather dataset and the 1991–2020 climate normals.
Reports & theses
Analysis
Reproducible analytical reports and graduate theses produced by the project — every output is openly available with full methodology, source code, or interview-based evidence.
The project’s analytical work falls in two complementary registers. The first is a reproducible report recalculating county Normal Grazing Periods under the current (1991–2020) NOAA climate normals, following the same methodology FSA set out in Notice NAP-190 but with up-to-date climate inputs. A companion analysis — projecting how grazing periods are likely to shift under future climate using NASA’s downscaled CMIP6 ensemble — is complete and being prepared for publication; it will appear here once the manuscript is submitted.
The second register is four University of Montana M.S. theses that examine, through interviews and field research, how FSA’s livestock disaster programs are administered on the ground and how producers experience them. Two of the four were directly supported by this project; two were advised by the PI and extend the project’s lens to drought planning and water scarcity in adjacent regions. The Team page names the researchers and their faculty committee chairs.
M.S. THESIS
"Emergency Relief as Routine": The Evolution of FSA's Livestock Forage Disaster Program in an Era of Persistent Drought
Shae Leigh Olsen, M.S. · University of Montana, 2025
Interviews with 23 FSA staff in nine states examine how the LFP operates on the ground and how staff and producers experience it as a recurring, rather than exceptional, source of operating capital in drought-affected ranching regions.
M.S. THESIS
Adaptation and Resilience: How Beginning Farmers Navigate Land and Climate Crises in Western Montana
Kyla Ivana Fugate, M.S. · University of Montana, 2025
Examines how new operators in western Montana navigate the intersecting pressures of land access, climate variability, and federal program eligibility.
M.S. THESIS
Equity and Social Vulnerability in Drought Planning and Response in the Northern Great Plains
Amishi Singh, M.S. · University of Montana, 2025
Extends the project's lens to drought planning and response across the Northern Great Plains, with attention to equity and social vulnerability in how disaster relief reaches communities.
M.S. THESIS
Water Scarcity in the Bitterroot Valley
August W. Guenthner, M.S. · University of Montana, 2025
A regional case study of water-scarcity dynamics in western Montana that complements the LFP work with on-the-ground evidence from a single valley.